Follow
Share

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/health/seniors-aging-home-care.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
summary:
The U.S. home care system is in crisis. The aging population is surging while facing severe labor shortages. Home care aides—who earn less than $17 per hour on average despite consumers paying $34 per hour—face unstable, low-paying jobs with an 80% annual turnover rate. Three promising innovations are emerging: worker-owned cooperatives that pay $2 more per hour and have half the turnover of traditional agencies; registries that connect workers directly with clients, allowing better matches and higher wages by cutting out agencies; and enhanced training programs that equip aides to spot early warning signs in patients with complex conditions like heart failure. These approaches show potential to improve both job quality and patient care, though they don’t solve the fundamental affordability problem—middle-class families often must spend down their assets to qualify for Medicaid or go without care entirely. The nation will need 740,000 additional home care workers over the next decade.

I'm not sure people grasp that the population is not just contracting on a temporary basis... even if people started having 3 kids today each it would take generations to recover and as it stands right now no government or program has worked to make a permanent change in any nation's birthrate because it is due to multiple factors — so it is working its way down to 0 people if no solution is found.

We better pray that they come up with some very useful robots to care for seniors because there won't be enough younger people to do it (not will they want to). We'll need robotics to do just about any manual labor task, like hand-picking crops, collecting garbage, etc.
(0)
Report

Geaton — thanks, I will watch, but first off I wanted to say that I heartily agree with all you say especially “and we should be welcoming legal immigrants with open arms”

I am certainly trying to brace myself and not waste oxygen griping about the wrong things. I am 60 and my mother is 80.

For the long term health of planet earth, I think the contracting birth rate is a good thing, but for the current and next several generations of old and infirm or disabled, plus daycares for kids, it’s going to be very tough going to get help. Including my generation for sure.
(0)
Report

Just a reminder that many states do not consider caregivers as contract employees. This means that elders hiring them directly makes the elder an employer, and they must conform to the state's employment laws: withholding taxes on paychecks, overtime and PTO rules, insurance coverage, W2s, etc. How many elders can handle this? How many of the family care managers need this extra headache? This is the service that the agencies provide: convenience and compliance, plus background checking, Worker's Comp coverage, and accountability for thefts and other illegal activities. They also provide subs for when aids are sick or go on vacation. If anyone thinks the turnover rate will be much better when hired directly -- think again. Part of the reason is that caregiving elders with dementia is a very unpleasant job. And dealing directly with family care managers can be very unpleasant.

If elders hire privately and then pay aids in cash, they prevent the aids from contributing to their own SS and Medicare. A person has to have 40 quarters of recorded employment history in order to receive these benefits. That's 10 years.

I'm currently hiring agency aids for my 96-yr old Mom. She's paying $46 p/hr here in metro Minneapolis area. But this agency has been stellar in getting aids when I need them as well as subs. But: many I've been sent so far are women my age or older (66) and many have bad knees or other health issues. Younger aids are very rare and don't stay long (at least in my experience).

The US is below the replacement birthrate (which is 2.1 children p/woman and the US is 1.6), so we have a much smaller young population while the Boomers are an exceptionally large demographic that is living longer. This is a permanent labor shortage because it is mathematical. You can't force people to have more children. BTW, this is a global problem of all industrialized nations and none have been able to solve it to this date.

Maybe you've heard that South Korea's birthrate is .7 -- currently the lowest in the world. This means with each generation (25 years) their population is being cut in half. China, Germany and Italy are also in deep population crisis right now. The US has been buffered due to the immigration of young people -- and we should be welcoming legal immigrants with open arms. They will be coming from countries that also have low birth rates and can't afford to lose their young people. This includes all of Mexico (1.7), and Central and South America. Countries have closed off their adoptions, so this has stopped being a viable option for Americans, as well.

Africa's birthrate is still about 4 but that's actually decreased from 10. So, even Africa is following the global trend for decline.

We seniors need to understand what is going on so we don't waste oxygen griping about the wrong things for the wrong reasons. We need to brace ourselves for the care challenge right now and in the foreseeable future.

I strongly recommend watching the award-winning documentary, "Birthgap" (on YouTube) that was written by a professional demographer who worked for a company that provided demographic information to car companies and he started to see a trend and decided to look deeper into it. It is full of facts, statistics, personal interviews with community leaders from all over the world.
(1)
Report

Another excerpt: Home care is already among the nation’s fastest-growing occupations, with 3.2 million home health aides and personal care aides on the job last year, up from 1.4 million a decade earlier, according to PHI, a research and advocacy group.
But the nation will need about 740,000 additional home care workers over the next decade, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and recruiting them won’t be easy.
These remain unstable, low-paying jobs. Of the largely female work force, about a third of whom are immigrants, 40 percent live in low-income households and most receive some sort of public assistance.
(0)
Report

Start a Discussion
Subscribe to
Our Newsletter